, Indonesia

This is what happens after Indonesia hits worst export growth

The whopping 24.3% fall is reflective of the economy's struggles post-2008 financial crisis.

According to OCBC, the sharp fall in Indonesia’s export growth to -24.3% yoy in August made the headlines on Monday, as it represented the worst export growth for the country since mid-2009, which was when the economy was struggling with some of the worst impact from the 2008 global financial crisis.

Here's more from OCBC:

This pace of moderation in export growth is worrying, especially if we noticed the fact that further downside risks remain prevalent. Animal/vegetable oil products (about 10% of total exports) managed to chalk about 0.9% yoy growth in the January-August period but this has not reflected the sharp crash in crude palm oil prices seen since late August.

Given the significance of palm oil and its products in this subcomponent on non-oil exports, we are likely to see the near-term pressure on export growth to sustain.

Yet, what was particularly more concerning for us is the fact that import growth came in extremely poor, at -8.0% yoy in August. Holiday distortions would have affected the annual growth figures for July and August, but as it is, when combined together to smooth the base effects, import growth for July-August came in at -3% yoy, chalking the first negative reading since 2009.

Adding on to the series of concerns is the fact that it was the -6.3% slump in non-oil imports (first time in the negative since late 2009) that had weighed on the August figure, while imports of oil products had recovered to -13.1% yoy from -28.1% yoy previously.

Indeed, when we looked at the breakdown of August import growth data, it was clearly the 21% yoy contraction in imports of consumer goods that had triggered the surprise in the August data.  

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