Thailand exports edged up a measly 0.2%

But still, economy is thankful to a 58% jump in jewelry shipments.

According to DBS, against consensus expectations of a 2.7% YoY contraction, headline export growth reached 0.2% in September. Although the export growth figure is better than expected, the underlying trend is still far from sanguine.

Here's more from DBS:

Notably, the export figure for September was heavily boosted by a USD 940mn (58% MoM) jump in jewelry shipments. This component alone accounted for 90% of the MoM increase in overall exports.

Excluding this spike in jewelry, YoY export growth would be at -4.3%. Vehicle & vehicle parts is another bright spot, with export values edging up in September.

That said, most of the other export components are still posting lackluster performances. Electronics, plastics, textile and agriculture products have largely gone sideways over the last few months.

For the first nine months of the year, exports are down by 1.1%. Even if headline export growth hits double digits in the last three months of this year (due to very favorable base effects), this will still not be sufficient to pull the full-year growth figure up to the 15% targeted by the Commerce Ministry.

Full-year export growth of between 4-6% would be a more likely scenario. Meanwhile, in level terms, imports have been easing since March.

The import surge at that time can be attributed to the post-flood recovery as reflected by a spike in raw material and intermediate goods. In more recent months, challenging external demand conditions will inevitably reduce imports of such intermediate goods.

However, over the medium term imports should still be supported by strong domestic demand momentum and the authorities’ pro-growth policies.