Reflationary efforts and new year to boost China trade activities in 2020

Exports and imports are foreseen at 0% and 3% YoY, respectively.

China’s trade activities will still be soft for 2020, with exports and imports foreseen at 0% YoY and 3% YoY respectively, but reflationary efforts and the early Lunar New Year should anchor growth, according to a UOB Kay Hian report

Exports slowed to 0.5% YoY in 2019 from 9.9% YoY in 2018 amidst heightened trade uncertainties, but growth in December was boosted by a low base as it ballooned to 7.6% YoY from -1.3% YoY in November.

December exports to the US and Japan shrank to -14.6% YoY and -3.4% YoY respectively, but exports to the EU (6.7% YoY), Hong Kong (1.9% YoY and ASEAN (27.4% YoY) remained strong.

Meanwhile, imports jumped to 16.3% YoY in December from 0.3% YoY in November, likely due to similar factors affecting import growth, the report said. Import growth of crude oil rebounded to 2.9% YoY in December after four consecutive months of contraction, but coal crashed 73.7% YoY due to a lower import quota set for 2019.

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