Philippines' exports remain volatile

No thanks to the depressed levels of electronics exports since April.

DBS Group Research noted:

Export figures have been highly volatile over the past few months, with a sizable chunk of the fluctuations explained by non-electronic manufactures. A further breakdown reveals that machinery & transport equipment, miscellaneous manufactured articles and other manufactures were the three main components that showed large month-to-month changes.

Stripping out these three components (and calling the remainder core exports), the trend of deterioration is clear. In level terms, core exports are at levels not seen since the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis in mid-2009. Much of this can be attributed to the depressed levels of electronics exports since April.

The temporary bump up in the first three months of the year petered out after restocking took place and final demand failed to pick up subsequently. Looking across the region, electronics exports performance has been mixed, with Taiwan and Korea outperforming Singapore and Thailand. For September, we expect growth to edge back to 2.6% YoY, rebounding from a contraction of 9.0% in the preceding month.