Korea to benefit from China's recovery

Industrial production is forecast to rise.

DBS Group Research noted:

October industrial production (tomorrow) is projected to rise 1% MoM sa, marking a positive MoM growth for the second consecutive month (0.8% in September). Export growth has turned positive, rising 1.1% YoY in October. Based on the preliminary data, export growth accelerated to 1.7% YoY in the first 20 days of November.

Meanwhile, on the supply side, production in the automobile sector, which was dragged down by the labor strikes this summer, has started to pick up since September. A steady recovery in the automobile sector has been sustained in October, as revealed by the industry data from the KAMA.

We maintain the view that GDP growth has bottomed in 3Q and will return to a recovery path from 4Q onwards. Korea will benefit from China’s recovery, due to the close trade connections with China, and the trade substitute effects resulting from the China-Japan tensions.