, India

India's economy grew 4.7% in 3Q

See which sub-components provided crucial support.

According to DBS, 3Q fiscal year GDP numbers were out late Friday. The Indian economy expanded 4.7% YoY in 3Q (Oct-Dec13) slowing marginally from 4.8% the quarter before.

Here's more:

Adjusted for seasonal variations, growth was up 0.7% QoQ, easing from 1.2% in the first half of the year. For the first three quarters, growth stands at 4.6%, nearly flat from FY12/13’s revised 4.5%. Growth remains below 5% for the seventh successive quarter to Dec13.

The performance of the sub-components was along our expectations. Under the industry breakdown, agricultural output and higher disbursements under the community and social services (reflects government spending) provided crucial support.

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Backed by improved sowing of the winter and summer crops, food grains production is expected to rise 2.4% this year, from 1% fall last year. In the first three quarters of FY13/14, the sector has accelerated to 3.7% from 1.9% in FY12/13.

Other key service categories – financial and business services stayed firm, lifting the sector up 7.9%, from 1H’s 6.8%. Manufacturing activity however emerged as a key drag, down -1.9%, decelerating from 1H’s -0.1% and last year’s 2%.

This sluggishness also extended to mining (-1.6%) and utilities at the margin. Including construction, the overall industrial sector slowed notably to 0.5%, more than halving from 1H’s 1.9%.

Under the expenditure breakdown, private consumption benefited from higher rural incomes, while non-rural discretionary spending stayed subdued.

The component accordingly rose 2.6% from 1.9% in the first half. Government spending rose 4%, shaking off the modest downtick in the quarter before. This component however is expected to emerge as a notable drag in the Mar quarter as spending was sharply restrained to meet challenging annual targets.

Capital formation continued to lose momentum, slipping 1.1% and taking the year-to-date growth to barely above water. Net exports growth maintained a similar pace as quarter before. Export growth slowed, but the trade account benefited by a sharper decline in merchandise imports.  

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