Here's why Taiwan must watch out for exports orders

The September surge in exports may be a one-time phenomenon.

According to DBS, key data to watch this week will be export orders. It can help to judge whether the surge in September exports was a one-off phenomenon or a start of an improving trend. Export orders data are less affected by seasonal factors.

Here's more from DBS:

The monthly volatility in export orders growth is lower than that in exports growth (19.7%). For now, the consensus
expects a modest 2.0% YoY rise in September export orders, far lower than the 10.4% growth reported in exports in the same month.

Indeed, we suspect that there were one-off factors behind the surge in September exports. One third of the MoM rise in September exports came from ASEAN, mainly due to stronger demand for mineral fuel products.

Another one third of the increase stemmed from China and Hong Kong, also in part driven by mineral fuels (and electronics). Meanwhile, exports to Japan contributed 14% of the MoM rise in September, primarily on the back of electronics products. This is a far deviation from the weak results in Japan’s electronics trade and production data of late. Overall, we think it is too early to conclude that a recovery in exports is already underway.