, China

Here are 3 proofs that China's exports are finally boding well

Exports growth may likely have grown 7.4% in 2012.

According to DBS, single-digit trade growth numbers are expected for China in December. Merchandise exports and imports are projected to have grown 8.1% YoY and 1.6% in December.

For the whole of 2012, export and import growth are expected to have grown 7.4% and 3.9% respectively, versus 20.3% and 24.9% in 2011. However, the trade surplus in 2012 shot up to USD 228bn (expected) from USD155bn in 2011 in spite of a tough external environment.

Here's more from DBS:

Exports will likely fare better in 2013. Firstly, the US economy is recovering. A leading indicator of Chinese exports – the US ISM new orders index, has recovered
since its trough in August 2012.

Secondly, exports to Asia (ex-Japan) – which accounts for over 40% of total exports – are faring well. Exports to the region grew 12.8% in the first eleven months of 2012, versus -7.0% in the EU.

As growth in most major Asian economies is expected to accelerate this year, demand for Chinese exports should be well supported.

Thirdly, while the EU market is still sluggish - export growth to the EU was in the red for the past six months - exports to Africa and Latin America are picking up some of the slack.

The growth prospects for these new markets are much more positive than the EU – exports to Africa and LatAm increased 15.5% and 11.0% respectively in the first eleven months of 2012.

Finally, despite strained China-Japan relations after the flare-up in August 2012, bilateral trade volumes since then remained fairly constant at around USD 27-30bn per
month.

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