3 good things about China's weaker-than-expected March exports

It only grew by 10%.

According to BBVA, China's March exports rose by 10.0 y/y (consensus: 11.7% y/y), after stellar outturns in January/February of above 20% y/y (although the reliability of those outturns has been questioned due to possible over-invoicing).

BBVA said that while the weak-than-expected March outturn raises concerns about the export outlook given sluggish external demand, there are some positives in the data: (i) for Q1 as a whole, export growth registered 18.3% y/y, underpinned by improving trends to the US (6.7% y/y) and especially ASEAN countries (28.0% y/y); (ii) imports rose above expectations in March (14.2% y/y vs. consensus: 6.0%) in March, pointing to stronger domestic demand (which, incidentally was a factor for the Australia’s appreciation today to 1.05 against the USD).

"The trade balance for the month turned negative (-$880 million) for the first time since February 2012. The RMB appreciated today to 6.19 against the USD," it said in a report.

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