Home sales volume to fall 30%-50% in 2013: OCBC

Blame it on these 2 factors.

According to OCBC Investment Research, it expects Feb 2013 sales figure to fall MoM due to the traditionally quiet Chinese New Year season and a limited number of new launches. Further ahead, it sees sales volumes in 2013 likely moderating 30%-50% from 2012 levels due to: 1) the impact of the latest measures, and 2) the effect of coming off a high base in 2012 (22.5k sold, excl. ECs/landed). 

OCBC adds, that said, an 11k-16k annual sales figure still points to a fairly firm market by historical standards. Immediate datapoints ahead are the launches at Trilinq (IOI Group) near the Clementi MRT Station and Urban Vista (Fragrance Group) near the Tanah Merah MRT station.

Here’s more:

Headline total of 2,269 units sold. URA reported that a headline total of 2,269 new private homes (including 256 EC units) were sold in Jan 2013, which was up 2% MoM and 9% YoY. Excluding EC and landedunits, 2,003 units were sold in the month - up 47% MoM and 7% YoY with a sustained above-par take-up rate at 111% (versus 144% in Dec 2012).

As a result, the inventory of launched and unsold units (excl. EC/landed) in the market fell for the second consecutive month by 3% MoM to 5,012 units.

Numbers boosted by pre-curb buying and attractive discounts. The bulk of new home sales in Jan 2013 were in the "Outside Central Region" with 1,278 units sold - up a whooping 113% MoM.

This is mainly due to strong launches at La Fiesta (Sengkang Square, 810 total units) with 404 units sold - most of these the day before 11 Jan when the latest curbs were implemented - at a median ASP of S$1,163 psf, and at Q Bay Residences (Tampines St. 86, 630 units) with 372 units sold at S$1,012 psf.

We also saw sales in the "Core Central Region" tick up to 349 units sold from 239 units in Dec 2012, driven mostly by attractive discounts given by CapitaLand at D'Leedon which sold 263 units in Jan 2013.