Flat launches and pre-sales experience Hungry Ghost effect

While figures in different areas in Singapore fell, launches up 40.5% in the Core Central Region.

Despite the traditionally slower monthlong Hungry Ghost festival period (10 Aug to 07 Sep), launches of non-landed property units slipped only 0.6% MoM to 1,314 units for Aug 2010, according to an OCBC Investment Research Report.

Though launch activity fell off in the city fringe or Rest of Central Region (RCR, 452 units, -17.4% MoM), launches actually increased in the city or Core Central Region (CCR, 406 units, +40.5% MoM). Meanwhile launches in the suburbs or Outside Central Region (OCR) slipped 6.2% MoM to 456 units. Key projects releasing inventory in Aug included The Greenwich (OCR, developer: Far East Org), The Residences at W Singapore (CCR, developer: City Developments), and Viva Vista (RCR, developer: Oxley Holdings).

The Hungry Ghost effect was felt more keenly in Aug pre-sales, which fell 20.2% MoM to 1,211 units. The biggest decline of sales was in the CCR (148 units sold, -45% MoM), followed by the OCR (518 units sold, -19.3% MoM) and the RCR (545 units sold, -10.1% MoM). The monthly take-up (units sold in Aug versus units launched in Aug) rate dropped from 114.8% a month ago to 92.2%. "Shoe-box" small-format units at projects such as Viva Vista, where typical units of below 500 square feet sold for a median S$1,509 psf, were most popular. YTD, a total 10,998 units (11,371 units including landed) have been sold compared to 11,541 units (11,951 units) sold a year ago. Cumulative unsold inventory is now at 3,374 units (non-landed only), up 3.8% MoM.

Aug figures would not reflect the impact of the third round of policy measures, which were announced on Aug 30. The measures were primarily targeted at deepening the differentiation between the private and HDB housing markets. In addition, the government targeted speculation through wider-ranging stamp duty regulation and tighter lending requirements on second home loans. While OCBC had previously expected Sep to be an activity-heavy month, sales momentum is likely to be dented as the market absorbs the implications of the new policy measures. OCBC understands that several developers have also pushed back new launches. Sales continue selectively though - City Developments launched the first phase of its much-anticipated 642-unit NV Residences, where buyers snapped up 250 units out of 300 units launched. Still, OCBC now expects pre-sales to fall below the 1,000 mark in Sep. With a change in analyst coverage, OCBC’s ratings for the property companies under its coverage are under review.

Key projects releasing inventory in Aug included The Greenwich (OCR, developer: Far East Org), The Residences at W Singapore (CCR, developer: City Developments), and Viva Vista (RCR, developer: Oxley Holdings). While Oxley and Far East's projects enjoyed strong take-up rates, no units were sold at The Residences at W during the month.