Here's how Singapore yards are losing the semi-sub order race

Only 3 semi-subs orders to date.

According to Nomura, in recent analysts’ meetings Singapore yards have highlighted that enquiry for semi-subs remain high though new orders have been slow to come by.

Including today’s order from SOCAR, only 3 semi-subs have been ordered in 2013 YTD. Though 11 semi-subs were ordered in 2012, 5 of these were attributable to Petrobras’ chunky order. This compares with 33 drillship orders in 2012.

Here's more from Nomura:

We also highlight that unlike drillships that have a strong delivery schedule (21 newbuild deliveries scheduled in 2013); only 1 semi-sub will be delivered in 2013 and 5 in 2014.

According to data from ODSPetrodata, a total of 42 drillship deliveries are scheduled in 2013-14F, representing a capacity increase of 52% (81 contracted drillships currently).

This compares with 6 semi-sub deliveries in the same period representing a capacity increase (194 contracted semi-subs currently) of only 3%. 

Despite subdued new orders for semi-subs over the last 2 years, semisub utilisation has remained high. According to data from ODSPetrodata, for high specification (spec) semi-subs, utilisation has averaged 99.9% since Jan 2012, while for low and medium specs it has averaged 90.1% and 98.7% respectively.

In line with strong utilisation, semi-sub dayrates have also trended upwards in most regions. In May 2013, global average dayrates for semisubs were up 5.7% y-y to USD378K/day while regions such as North West Europe have witnessed even stronger dayrate increase of 9.5%.