Price famine for commodity producers in early 2012

2012 will be a good year for commodity producers, even as markets continue to climb the wall of worry.

We may see commodity prices printing their lows for next year in Q1-2012, with the weakest y/y GDP growth expected to be in that quarter.

Our economists forecast that world GDP growth will be relatively stronger in Q2-2012, with a follow-through uptrend in H2-2012.

We expect commodity prices to be forward-looking and will likely finish Q1-2012 higher than at the beginning of the quarter.

We expect precious metals to perform better than other commodity sectors going into Q1-2012.
At the same time we expect base metals to show the biggest correction going into Q1-2012, but will likely show the biggest rebound coming out from the lows.